Prepared for Stearns Bank · Austin Financial Services
Inventory position & turns: what the collateral is doing, and why it is built this way
The Neato Company · Updated August 3, 2026 · All inventory stated at cost
Inventory at cost
$15.56M
Snapshot 2026-07-25: at Amazon, inbound to Amazon, and at Neato
Monthly revenue
$4.96M
Jun 2026, complete month
Aging inside 90 days
76.8%
Fresh inventory — no focus-brand units older than one year
Subscription share, established brands
≈30%
Recurring, committed demand — illy at 30.7% of revenue
The build is the plan
Inventory grew by design: contracted positions were bought ahead of the revenue they were signed to serve
Inventory at cost stands at $15.56M, up from approximately $9M in July 2025. The increase is not drift — roughly 90% of the build is two signed, exclusive brand positions bought forward: the illy transition to Neato as retail partner and the SureFire launch in February 2026. The remaining ~10% is Rocketbook, purchased ahead of its Q4 seasonal peak — its biggest selling season of the year.
Monthly revenue rose from $4.40M to $4.96M over the same window. The distance between inventory growth and trailing revenue growth is the launch build itself: trailing sales cannot yet include the demand the inventory was purchased to serve. That demand is contracted, and the sections below track it landing.
The positions carry defined ROI: every dollar of illy inventory returns 35% on sell-through, and every dollar of SureFire returns 38%. Sale proceeds settle directly to the collections account at Stearns Bank.
Collateral
Inventory at cost: every unit counted once, grouped by where it physically sits
Thirteen months of month-end positions, by brand and by location — At Amazon, Inbound to Amazon, or At Neato — as of the snapshot date shown.
Note on the early months: the daily reporting behind this chart did not include Neato's own warehouse until late June 2026, so earlier months count only inventory at Amazon. That is why July 2025 shows $8.10M here while total inventory including the warehouse was approximately $9M. It also means part of the step up in mid-2026 is the warehouse being counted for the first time — not a new purchase.
Focus positions
illy and SureFire: the two positions the build is made of
Each position with its cost basis, ROI on sell-through, the brand's actual Amazon sales, the share of those sales Neato holds today against the 90% exclusive-retailer target, age profile, and the contracted ramp that resolves it.
Focus brand
illy
Position at cost
$7.61M
266,569 units at Amazon, inbound, and at the Neato warehouse
ROI on sell-through
35%
Net after fees: the $7.61M position returns ≈ $10.27M as it sells through
illy brand sales on Amazon
$3.39M/mo
$48.69M trailing 12 months — actual Amazon sales, Keepa-verified*
Neato illy, trailing 30 days
$2.28M
67.1% of the brand's $3.39M monthly Amazon sales
Share of brand demand captured
$2.28M of $3.39M monthly brand salesShare is measured in dollars, not units, because a "unit" is not the same size on both sides: Neato's average sale is $59 per unit while the brand's average item on Amazon sells for $24. Dollars compare like for like.
Contracted demand ramp
Full pace by Nov 2026Aug 2026
51,036 units/mo pace
180,078
units remaining
Sep 2026
62,357 units/mo pace
117,721
units remaining
Oct 2026
73,679 units/mo pace
44,042
units remaining
Focus brand
SureFire
Position at cost
$2.34M
43,786 units at Amazon, inbound, and at the Neato warehouse
ROI on sell-through
38%
Net after fees: the $2.34M position returns ≈ $3.23M as it sells through
SureFire brand sales on Amazon
$846K/mo
$16.03M trailing 12 months — actual Amazon sales, Keepa-verified*
Neato SureFire, trailing 30 days
$119K
14.1% of the brand's $846K monthly Amazon sales
Share of brand demand captured
$119K of $846K monthly brand salesShare is measured in dollars, not units, because a "unit" is not the same size on both sides: Neato's average sale is $60 per unit while the brand's average item on Amazon sells for $122. Dollars compare like for like.
SureFire warehouse inventory is case-packed; revenue realizes as cases are repacked into sellable units. Economics shown use the net sell-through basis supplied for the launch position.
Contracted demand ramp
Full pace by Sep 2026Aug 2026
4,437 units/mo pace
35,053
units remaining
Sep 2026
6,923 units/mo pace
28,130
units remaining
Oct 2026
6,923 units/mo pace
21,207
units remaining
Nov 2026
6,923 units/mo pace
14,284
units remaining
Dec 2026
6,923 units/mo pace
7,361
units remaining
*Brand-demand figures are verified against Keepa data — Amazon's own reported per-ASIN monthly purchase counts — reflecting actual recorded sales. Demand share is measured in dollars throughout: Neato's trailing-30-day sales against the brand's monthly Amazon sales, so every percentage reconciles with the dollar figures shown beside it.
Turns
Inventory turns: why the same business reads 1.8× or 3.5× depending on how you count
Turns answer one question: how many times a year does inventory sell through. The math is a year of cost of goods sold divided by inventory — and the answer depends entirely on which inventory number you divide by.
One thing turns are not: a measure of how long a given item takes to sell. They measure how deeply inventory is stocked relative to the pace of sales — a fast-selling item deliberately bought four months deep lowers turns exactly the way a slow item would. Depth is a buying decision, and Neato's is set by contracted brand positions, import lead times, and seasonal buys.
The year of cost is the same in every calculation on this page: $27.35M of trailing-12-month product cost. Here is that same year of cost divided three ways:
| Divide the year of cost by… | Turns | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Today's inventory — $15.56M, measured right after the build, the largest it has ever been | 1.8× (208 days) | The snapshot a bank or field exam takes. One day's inventory against a full year of cost — so a deliberate build makes it read worse the moment the inventory lands. |
| Average inventory held over the year — $8.96M | 3.1× | The accounting standard. Reflects the year as it was actually run, instead of judging it by its single biggest day. |
| Average inventory, established brands only — excluding the illy and SureFire builds | 3.5× | The pace of the business outside the launches. The illy + SureFire cohort reads 2.4× only because its inventory landed ahead of its contracted revenue. |
Same sales, same cost, same year — the only thing that changes is the denominator.A snapshot taken at the top of a deliberate build measures the build, not the business. The lender's own reference book says as much:
RMA's Annual Statement Studies cautions that a point-in-time turns figure "could indicate a planned inventory buildup," since it compares one day's inventory to a full year of cost of goods sold.
Reconciling a number you may have seen
The "34 days to 68 days" move is real — but smaller than it looks, and deliberate
Days of sales on hand — inventory at cost against a day of revenue — is the quickest read on the build. On Neato's data it stands at ≈67 days for Jun 2026, consistent with the roughly 68-day figure that has come up in recent conversations.
A ~34-day figure for July 2025 is only reachable if some of today's inventory buckets are left out — and that is what the reporting did at the time: staged-for-FBA fields entered the EOD Inventory file on June 25, 2026, and Neato's own warehouse entered daily reporting in late June 2026. Measured on today's full bucket set, July 2025 reads ≈55 days.
Measured consistently, the move is ≈55 to ≈67 days — a 22% deepening, not a doubling — and the added depth is the contracted illy and SureFire positions detailed above, resolving on the ramps shown.
Calibrating the target by product type
A single turn-days target misreads a mixed catalog. The operating targets Neato manages to:
| Product type | Healthy target |
|---|---|
| Fast-turn consumables (coffee, pet consumables, candy) | ~45 turn-days |
| Durable and long-dated goods (batteries, housewares) | ~120 turn-days |
| Launch positions | Forward velocity vs. contracted ramp |
Launch positions are measured against the demand they are contracted to serve, not trailing sales — today's sell rate is the floor, not the run-rate.
Age of the collateral
76.8% inside 90 daysField exams scrutinize inventory older than one year. The focus-brand positions have no units older than one year — this is fresh inventory bought against contracts, not aged stock waiting for a market.
illy inventory age
FBA snapshot 2026-07-2190.5% of units are inside 90 days; none are older than one year.
SureFire inventory age
FBA snapshot 2026-07-21100.0% of units are inside 90 days; none are older than one year.
Recurring demand
Where subscription programs are established, subscription runs at roughly 30% of revenue
Order-level Subscribe & Save: revenue from orders that carried S&S pricing at checkout, measured daily. Subscription inventory is demand already committed — the most predictable sell-through a lender can look at.
illy subscription share
30.7%
illy is ≈half of Neato revenue. At or above 30% in each of the last 6 months; peak 37.6% in Feb 2026
Catalog enrolled in Subscribe & Save
26%–31%
Share of revenue on subscription-enrolled products, per Amazon's own weekly measure over the last quarter
All brands blended
23.3%
Jun 2026, up from 12.9% in December — inclusive of Q4 holiday gift revenue. New launches sell before their subscriber bases exist, which is what holds the blend below 30%
Against normal CPG brands
| Program | Subscription share of revenue |
|---|---|
| illy — flagship program (≈half of Neato revenue) | 30.7% |
| Established digital programs | 18–24% |
| All Neato brands, blended* | 23.3% |
| Typical replenishable CPG brand on Amazon | 7–12% |
| Best-in-class subscription programs | 20%+ |
Industry rows reflect ranges commonly cited for Amazon Subscribe & Save revenue penetration across replenishable CPG categories.
*Blended share includes Q4 holiday gift revenue, which is one-time by nature and temporarily lowers the subscription share in those months. Basis: order-level Subscribe & Save measurement (daily) — revenue from orders that carried S&S pricing at checkout — calendar-exact and slightly conservative.
Placement
The flagship illy unit reaches nearly every major metro same-day or next-day
Real Amazon delivery promises for ASIN B07HRVYPJ7 (illy Classico Whole Bean, 6-pack, featured offer $89.94), observed against residential ZIP codes in 17 metros.
Metros observed
17 of 17
Every promise recorded verbatim from Amazon
Same-day or next-day
16
Most promises are overnight, arriving by 8 AM
Within two days
17 of 17
Coverage of every observed metro
| Metro | Fastest promise | Amazon's own wording |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Same-day | Today 5 PM - 10 PM |
| Houston, TX | Same-day | Today 5 PM - 10 PM |
| Las Vegas, NV | Same-day | Today 5 PM - 10 PM |
| Phoenix, AZ | Same-day | Today 5 PM - 10 PM |
| Atlanta, GA | Next-day | Tomorrow, July 25 |
| Boston, MA | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| Chicago, IL | Next-day | Overnight 7 AM - 11 AM |
| Denver, CO | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| Los Angeles, CA | Next-day | Tomorrow, July 25 |
| Miami, FL | Next-day | Overnight 7 AM - 11 AM |
| Minneapolis, MN | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| New York, NY | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| Philadelphia, PA | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| San Francisco, CA | Next-day | Overnight 4 AM - 8 AM |
| Seattle, WA | Next-day | Overnight 5 AM - 8 AM |
| Washington, DC | Next-day | Tomorrow, July 25 |
| Baltimore, MD | Two-day | Sunday, July 26 |
Method
Each observation is Amazon's own delivery promise for ASIN B07HRVYPJ7, read from the product page against a residential ZIP code in that metro on July 24, 2026. Promises are recorded verbatim and bucketed — never estimated. 17 of 17 metros observed; pending metros are shown pending until a real observation lands.
This is what the FBA position buys: inventory pre-positioned inside Amazon's fulfillment network, promised to customers in hours. Inventory that can be promised overnight across the country is inventory positioned to sell — not stock waiting in a warehouse for a buyer.
Documents
Brand contracts and Series A materials
Executed brand agreements and the Advantage Capital Series A detail sit behind document authentication. Credentials are provided by The Neato Company.